Learning Objectives: describe a method for utilizing local data to set community-specific goals for tobacco control
Abstract: Effective tobacco control programs at the local community level are critical for statewide impact. However, there are few methods available for setting goals and evaluating effects at the local level. The purpose of this research was to develop and illustrate the application of a method that models historical trends in tobacco use, predicts future prevalence of use, and uses predictions to set community-specific goals. The study used locally available (and underutilized) data on the prevalence of smoking during pregnancy recorded on the U.S. Birth Certificate for the years 1989 to 2000 in Wisconsin. Trends in prevalence for all counties (n=72) and the State were modeled using linear regression of log of prevalence on year (R^2=0.98, State). For the State, smoking prevalence declined from 22.9% of pregnant women (1989) to 16.5% (2000), an annual (relative) rate of decline of –3.3 percent per year (95% CI [-3.7, -2.9]). Among counties, there was considerable variation in both prevalence of smoking (7.5 to 53.5%) and relative rate of change (-5.5 to 1.6 percent per year). Nearly half of all counties showed rates of change significantly different from the State. Local variation suggests that goals should reflect community-specific trends. We suggest that communities use the above method to describe trends, apply the model to predict a future rate based on trends, and set goals according to a percentage of the rate predicted by historical trend analysis.
Back to Effective Programming at the Local Level—Influencing Policy for Statewide Impact
Back to Evaluation and Surveillance
Back to The 2002 National Conference on Tobacco or Health