Learning Objectives: Describe and assess the methods used to project future health benefits of achieving public health goals.
Abstract: This paper estimates the number of future smoking-related deaths (SRDs) that can be prevented if current smoking prevalence is halved by the year 2010. The Healthy People 2010 objectives for tobacco include reducing current smoking prevalence among to 16% among youths under 18 and to 12% among adults over 18 years. We calculated the number of future SRDs prevented by estimating the number of deaths expected if a) no change in youth and adult prevalence occurs, b) the HP2010 goals are achieved, and c) a mid-range goal is met based on the work of Mendez and Warner. Under each scenario, the projected number of smokers in 2010 were estimated for different age groups. Since not all smokers die of a smoking-related disease, we used existing estimates of the likelihood that smokers of different ages would die from a smoking-related disease (24-50%) to calculate the proportion of SRDs that would be preventable if the mid-range and HP2010 smoking reductions were met. The data indicate halving current smoking prevalence may reduce the number of smokers by 32 million, compared to no change in prevalence, and by 16 million if the mid-level prevalence reductions are met. These differences suggest achieving HP2010 goals will lead to nearly 9 million fewer SRDs compared to projected deaths if current prevalence does not change. Compared to more modest mid-level smoking reductions, halving prevalence may lead to 5 million fewer SRDs. These estimates show achieving the HP2010 prevalence reductions can prevent millions of future deaths from smoking.
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